Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.280300 1.356760 1.436441 1.525873 1.623685 1.727676 1.846943
2026-01-25 1.179968 1.290015 1.410115 1.551706 1.715089 1.898954 2.123302
2026-02-01 1.084179 1.209267 1.349943 1.521326 1.726491 1.966834 2.273667
2026-02-08 1.003879 1.136534 1.289123 1.479748 1.714587 1.998642 2.374944
2026-02-15 0.952406 1.092396 1.256649 1.466498 1.731830 2.062397 2.515880
2026-02-22 0.916272 1.063380 1.239124 1.468334 1.765273 2.145761 2.685712
2026-03-01 0.873131 1.022910 1.204461 1.445265 1.763546 2.181105 2.791076
2026-03-08 0.826963 0.976181 1.159186 1.405264 1.735931 2.178343 2.840659
2026-03-15 0.798064 0.949589 1.137734 1.394439 1.745563 2.225487 2.963689
2026-03-22 0.785701 0.943163 1.141395 1.416334 1.800069 2.337645 3.191221
2026-03-29 0.765173 0.925168 1.128880 1.415283 1.821834 2.403396 3.352498
2026-04-05 0.752655 0.916925 1.128581 1.430468 1.866822 2.505315 3.579327
2026-04-12 0.733643 0.900114 1.117020 1.430655 1.891931 2.581916 3.777805
2026-04-19 0.724171 0.895634 1.121901 1.454238 1.952948 2.718459 4.093634
2026-04-26 0.697516 0.866953 1.092320 1.426598 1.934635 2.727467 4.185317
2026-05-03 0.669074 0.834903 1.056875 1.388728 1.898307 2.704380 4.215488
2026-05-10 0.650951 0.816369 1.039574 1.376650 1.901142 2.745463 4.368879
2026-05-17 0.638388 0.805031 1.031887 1.378324 1.925411 2.823705 4.601837
2026-05-24 0.619370 0.784122 1.009826 1.357286 1.911899 2.835832 4.704631
2026-05-31 0.596525 0.757251 0.978408 1.320773 1.871361 2.797982 4.701213
2026-06-07 0.582915 0.742997 0.964725 1.310885 1.873946 2.836461 4.860981
2026-06-14 0.578876 0.742103 0.970305 1.330882 1.927047 2.969468 5.240307
2026-06-21 0.568959 0.732519 0.962785 1.329923 1.944488 3.037869 5.485769